Duvakitug is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Sanofi, with a leading Phase II program in Ulcerative Colitis;Crohn’s Disease (Regional Enteritis). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 2 are ongoing, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Duvakitug’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Duvakitug is expected to reach an annual total of $35 mn by 2040 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Duvakitug Overview
Duvakitug is under development for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease). It acts by targeting tumor necrosis factor-like ligand 1A (TL1A). It is administered through subcutaneous route.
It was under development for the treatment of asthma and irritable bowel syndrome.
Sanofi Overview
Sanofi is a healthcare company, which is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of a wide range of medicines and vaccines. Its portfolio includes medicines for the treatment of cancer, rare diseases, multiple sclerosis; human vaccines for protection against various bacterial and viral diseases; and other products. The company also offers consumer healthcare products for digestion; allergy; cough, cold, flu and sinus; pain; women’s health; and vitamins, minerals, and supplements. Sanofi‘s R&D efforts focus on advancing a combination drug to increase the effectiveness of treatments and on advancing the formulation of new biologics to produce precision medicines. It has operations in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. Sanofi is headquartered in Paris, Ile-de-France, France.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR46,444 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 2.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 17%, compared to an operating margin of 23.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 11.6%, compared to a net margin of 18.4% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Duvakitug’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
