Agomelatine is a small molecule commercialized by Alto Neuroscience, with a leading Phase II program in Major Depressive Disorder. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Agomelatine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Agomelatine is expected to reach an annual total of $104 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Agomelatine Overview
Agomelatine (ALTO-300) is under development for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). It is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting MT1, MT2 and 5-HT2C.
It was also under development for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Alto Neuroscience Overview
Alto Neuroscience is a biopharmaceutical company that develops drugs for psychiatric and mental health conditions. It is investigating ALTO-100, ALTO-202, and ALTO-300 drugs for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) by targeting cognition, emotion, and sleep systems. The company utilizes its AI-enabled drug development platform that identifies biomarkers by evaluating brain function measures to develop its product candidates. It serves throughout the US. Alto Neuroscience is headquartered in Los Altos, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$37.8 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$29.2 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$36.3 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$27.7 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Agomelatine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
