Bavarian Nordic shares sink by 12% after mpox sales slump in Q3

Revenue for the mpox vaccine is down compared to last year however its travel vaccine business grew by 21%.

Robert Barrie November 15 2024

Bavarian Nordic has already secured a sizeable portion of revenue for 2025 through orders for its mpox/smallpox vaccine, but financial performance for the shot was down in Q3.

The Danish infectious disease specialist has $340m (DKK 2.4m) lined up through orders for its MVA-BN vaccine known under the brand names Jynneos, Imvanex, and Imvamune. Bavarian Nordic is one of only a handful of companies manufacturing a mpox vaccine amid an ongoing outbreak of the disease in Africa.

Whilst a chunk of future revenue has been secured, sales for the business were still down 26% in Q3 this year compared to last, as per a 15 November financial release. Jynneos, along with its other brand names, generated $74.4m, down from the $100.3m made in the same period last year. Across the first nine months of this year, the difference is even larger – a 46% deficit.

The Q3 results were announced before markets opened on 15 November, and shares in the Copenhagen-listed company opened at 12.1% down. Several vaccine company shares have been negatively affected today as US President-elect Donald Trump announced he would appoint Robert F Kennedy Jr as head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Other vaccine makers, including Pfizer, Sanofi, and BioNTech, also suffered hits to their share prices. 

In its Q3 results, Bavarian Nordic stated that “sales are impacted by outbreaks and/or larger orders from time to time, which make quarterly or annual comparisons more challenging”.

“However, the sales for 2024 are fully aligned with the company’s expectations and the inventory on hand will ensure that the remaining anticipated orders for 2024 can be supplied in the fourth quarter of the year,” the company added.

Recent customers include the US government, which has placed multi-year orders valued at more than $220m, according to Bavarian Nordic. The orders from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) primarily focus on replenishing inventory used during the previous 2022/2023 mpox outbreak. The European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has bought 175,420 doses to combat the ongoing situation in Africa, along with an order of 1 million doses by UNICEF. Lastly, an unnamed European country ordered 440,000 doses.

Bavarian Nordic stated that the majority of these recently contracted orders, along with additional minor supply contracts, are due for delivery in 2024 and 2025. Bavarian previously said it could supply 13 million doses of the vaccine by the end of 2025 by prioritising production along with potentially transferring manufacturing to Africa. As a result, Bavarian Nordic expects its public preparedness business revenue to go above the previously expected base of $210m to $280m in 2025, though it did not provide new guidance.

Away from pandemic-reliant products, Bavarian Nordic reported strong gains in its travel health portfolio. Revenue increases for rabies vaccine Rabipur/RabAver, tick-borne encephalitis vaccine Encepur, and cholera vaccine Vaxchora pushed the company’s travel health Q3 business revenue up 21% compared to last year.

Bavarian Nordic could be adding a new vaccine to its immunisation rosters next year in the form of a chikungunya vaccine. The company said preparations are underway for a 2025 launch as the vaccine currently undergoes regulatory reviews in both the US and Europe.

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