The global atrial fibrillation market is forecasted to peak at $11.8bn in 2022, following which it will plummet to $4.9bn in 2025 owing to looming patent expiries, according to a GlobalData report.

Titled ‘PharmaPoint: Atrial Fibrillation – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025’, the report reveals that the anticipated decline in the market value will be brought about principally by the launch of first generics of the new oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

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Major pharmaceutical players are also expected to lose patent protections worldwide, including Boehringer Ingelheim’s imminent patent expiry of Pradaxa in 2018 across US, Japan and Canada.

The growing popularity of NOACs will continue to be the main growth driver of the global artial fibrillation market up until 2022, witnessing a growth of $3.8bn from the market value in 2015. Introduced in 2010, the NOACs accounted for approximately 85% of all atrial fibrillation sales revenue globally in 2015.

“According to the GlobalData report, the atrial fibrillation market will be affected by a number of factors that will cause it to shrink in value by 2023.”

The launch of Daiichi-Sankyo’s Savaysa, a fourth NOAC, is expected to further contribute to the growth of the market. The drug initially gained approval in Japan in 2014 as treatment for stokes prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation.

According to the GlobalData report, the atrial fibrillation market will be affected by a number of factors that will cause it to shrink in value by 2023.

Expensive and large clinical trials for anti-arrhythmic drugs, accompanied by generic erosion of multiple NOACs, will restrict the market growth.

Jesus Cuaron, Ph.D. PPM, GlobaData’s senior analyst covering cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, concludes, “These factors will deter drug developers seeking to enter the atrial fibrillation market, and the wide availability of generic anti-arrhythmic drugs, which will make it difficult for any novel rhythm control agents to gain reimbursement and wider uptake.”