The number of late-stage drug candidates with peak sales forecasts exceeding $1bn rose significantly last year, buoyed in part by the lucrative weight loss and diabetes markets, analysis shows.
In its annual ‘Measuring the Return from Pharmaceutical Innovation’ report based on the top 20 pharma companies by 2020 R&D expenditure, Deloitte reported a 53% increase in ‘blockbuster assets’ for the year. Blockbuster assets are pipeline candidates that are predicted to generate sales over $1bn at some point in the future.
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A total of 29 new blockbuster-in-waiting drugs entered the late-stage pipeline in 2024, a jump from the previous year’s 19. Among the new entrants were indications such as type 2 diabetes (T2D), obesity, eczema, and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
On the flip side, ten drugs – belonging to the neurology, oncology, and cardiovascular fields – had their forecast peak sales reduced by over $1bn. Deloitte stated this was due to lower-than-expected efficiency in trials, emerging side effects, and competitors reaching the market with a rival compound before or at the same time.
Deloitte life sciences partner Colin Terry said: “The evidence from our analysis shows that maintaining the status quo in pipeline strategy will limit pharma returns on investment in R&D.
“While the projected growth in returns is encouraging, companies must continue to adapt and evolve their pipeline strategies to navigate the complexities of the current landscape. That means prioritising areas where new treatments are desperately needed, ensuring that the highest potential treatments move into late-stage development, and being more open to collaboration and prioritising smaller, early-stage acquisitions.”
GLP-1RA changing the paradigm
Pharma companies have been keeping a keen eye on the success of Novo Nordisk’s and Eli Lilly’s glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) for the treatment of T2D and weight loss. Semaglutide, sold under the brand names Ozempic and Wegovy, generated around $8bn in 2024. The therapy is forecast to see sales of $26bn by 2031, according to analysis by GlobalData’s Pharma Intelligence Center.
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Deloitte reported that the average forecast peak sales per asset increased to $510m in 2024, up from $353m in 2023. However, if GLP-1RA drugs are excluded from the calculation, this number drops to $370m – indicating their substantial market influence. Among the 20 assets that had their peak sales forecast by more than $1bn, the largest change was an oral GLP-1RA obesity drug. Cancer indications were still the most represented, however, making up eight of the 20 assets.
High-value GLP-1RA drugs entering the R&D pipeline also helped boost the projected return on investment. The forecast internal rate of return rose from 4.3% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024.
“While stubbornly high costs of bringing drugs to market present an ongoing challenge, our analysis shows that shifting the dial to new treatment areas and shaking up traditional drug development methods can all boost efficiency and productivity,” said Karen Taylor, director at the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions.
