VCN-01 is an oncolytic virus commercialized by Theriva Biologics, with a leading Phase II program in Retinoblastoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 9 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, 6 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of VCN-01’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for VCN-01 is expected to reach an annual total of $232 mn by 2040 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
VCN-01 Overview
VCN-01 is under development for the treatment of advanced solid tumors including metastatic colorectal cancer, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and serous epithelial ovarian cancer, recurrent metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck, high-grade glioma or brain metastases, pancreatic adenocarcinoma, retinoblastoma and glioblastoma multiforme. It is administered by intravenous, intravitreal and intratumoral route. It is a tumor-selective replication-competent adenovirus expressing PH20 hyaluronidase. The drug candidate is a genetically engineered adenovirus that is developed based on hyaluronidase technology. It was also under development for the treatment of osteosarcoma.
Theriva Biologics Overview
Theriva Biologics (Theriva), formerly Synthetic Biologics Inc, is a clinical-stage company. It develops novel therapeutics to treat gut microbiome. The company’s pipeline products include SYN-004 and SYN-010. Its SYN-010 is a proprietary, modified-release formulation that is intended to treat irritable bowel syndrome with constipation. Theriva’s SYN-004 is an oral prophylactic therapy for the prevention of clostridium difficile infection, pathogenic overgrowth and the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. It develops preclinical monoclonal antibody therapies for the treatment of pertussis, and novel discovery-stage biotherapeutics for the treatment of phenylketonuria. The company undertakes various research activities to develop therapeutics. It collaborates with various academic and pharmaceutical companies to develop product candidates. Theriva is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland, the US.
For a complete picture of VCN-01’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
