TC-TLR7/8 is a small molecule commercialized by Ascendis Pharma, with a leading Phase II program in Head And Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSC). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of TC-TLR7/8’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for TC-TLR7/8 is expected to reach an annual total of $26 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
TC-TLR7/8 Overview
ACP-017 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC), other HPV-associated cancers, melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), merkel cell carcinoma, anal cancer, vulvar cancer, penile cancer, vaginal cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-small cell lung cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, hypopharyngeal cancer and oral cavity cancer. The drug candidate is a long acting prodrug of resiquimod administered through intratumoral route. It acts by targeting toll-like receptor (TLR) 7 and 8. It is developed based on the TransCon technology platform.
ACP-017 was under development for the treatment of colon cancer.
Ascendis Pharma Overview
Ascendis Pharma is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing drugs for endocrinology and oncology indications. It is investigating TransCon hGH, a long-acting human growth hormone prodrug targeting GHD (growth hormone deficiency); TransCon PTH drug to treat hypoparathyroidism by restoring physiologic levels of PTH (parathyroid hormone); and TransCon CNP, a CNP (C-type natriuretic peptide) drug against achondroplasia (ACH). It is also evaluating TransCon TLR (toll-like receptor) 7/8 agonist and TransCon IL-2 ß/?, an interleukin-2 variant that activates the IL-2 receptor beta/gamma (IL-2Rß/?) for the treatment of cancer. Ascendis Pharma utilizes its proprietary TransCon technology platform to develop its drugs. The company operates in the US, Germany and Denmark. Ascendis Pharma is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR266.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), compared to a revenue of EUR51.2 million in FY2022. The operating loss of the company was EUR455.5 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of EUR561.8 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was EUR481.5 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of EUR583.2 million in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of EUR36 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, a decrease of 62.5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of TC-TLR7/8’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
