Soticlestat is a small molecule commercialized by Takeda Pharmaceutical, with a leading Phase III program in Dravet Syndrome (Severe Myoclonic Epilepsy of Infancy). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 20 clinical trials, of which 17 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Soticlestat’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Soticlestat is expected to reach an annual total of $11 mn by 2040 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Soticlestat Overview
Soticlestat (TAK-935, OV-935) is under development for the treatment of developmental and epileptic encephalopathies (dEE), rare pediatric epilepsies such as Dravet syndrome, 15q duplication syndrome and CDKL5 deficiency disorder. It is administered orally. The drug candidate act by targeting cholesterol 24-hydroxylase.
The drug candidate was also under development for chronic complex regional pain syndrome, tuberous sclerosis complex and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Overview
Takeda Pharmaceutical (Takeda) is a global pharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and commercialization of biopharmaceutical products. It provides treatment for inflammatory bowel disease, acid-related diseases, motility disorders and liver diseases; hemophilia and hereditary bleeding disorders; primary immunodeficiency and multifocal motor neuropathy; major depressive disorder and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; and its cancer treatment encompasses multiple myeloma, mantle cell lymphoma, non-small cell lung cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia. While the company markets its pharmaceutical products directly, it also collaborates with marketing alliance partners in worldwide. Takeda operates in various countries worldwide, including Japan, the US, Europe, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific region. Takeda is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY4,263,762 million for the fiscal year ended March 2024 (FY2024), an increase of 5.9% over FY2023. In FY2024, the company’s operating margin was 5.8%, compared to an operating margin of 13.2% in FY2023. In FY2024, the company recorded a net margin of 3.4%, compared to a net margin of 7.9% in FY2023.
The company reported revenues of JPY1,207,990 million for the first quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 15% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Soticlestat’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
