Rozlytrek is a small molecule commercialized by Roche, with a leading Phase III program in Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 48 clinical trials, of which 22 were completed, 22 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Rozlytrek’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Rozlytrek is expected to reach an annual total of $42 mn by 2040 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Rozlytrek Overview
Entrectinib (Rozlytrek) belongs to phenylpiperazines class of compounds, acts as an anti-neoplastic agent. It is formulated as hard gelatin capsules and pellets for oral route of administration. Rozlytrek is indicated for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase (NTRK) fusion-positive, advanced recurrent solid tumours including pancreatic cancer, thyroid cancer, salivary gland cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and non small cell lung cancer, and also indicated for the treatment of TrkA-positive, TrkB-positive, TrkC-positive ROS1-positive or ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer.
Entrectinib (RXDX-101) is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), metastatic colorectal cancer, anaplastic large cell lymphoma, leptomeningeal disease, metastatic pancreatic cancer, salivary gland cancer, brain tumor, astrocytoma, synovial sarcoma, fibrosarcoma, triple negative, HER-2 positive, ER or PR positive breast cancer, head and neck cancer, ovarian cancer, neuroblastoma, central nervous system (CNS) tumor, cholangiocarcinoma, papillary thyroid cancer, renal cell carcinoma, mammary analog secretory carcinoma, acute myeloid leukemia, squamous non-small cell lung cancer and stages I-III non-small cell lung cancer with ALK, ROS1, NTRK, or BRAF v600E molecular alterations. The drug candidate is administered orally. The drug candidate is a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor of the TrkA, TrkB and TrkC, ROS1 and ALK proteins. It is developed based on Rx/Dx technology platform. It was also under development for the treatment of metastatic melanoma.
Roche Overview
Roche is a holding company that is involved in the business of offering oncology, immunology, infectious diseases, ophthalmology and neuroscience research services. The company is headquartered in Basel, Basel-Stadt, Switzerland.
The company reported revenues of (Swiss Francs) CHF58,716 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 7.2% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 25.8%, compared to an operating margin of 27.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 19.6%, compared to a net margin of 19.6% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Rozlytrek’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
