Neffy is a small molecule commercialized by ARS Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Anaphylaxis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 17 clinical trials, of which 13 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Neffy’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Neffy is expected to reach an annual total of $391 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Neffy Overview
Epinephrine (ARS-1) is under development for the treatment of anaphylaxis caused by severe allergic reactions to medications, insect bites, asthma, urticaria, seasonal allergic rhinitis, food allergy and infectious rhinitis. It is formulated as spray and administered through intranasal route. The drug candidate acts by targeting ADRA, ADRB adrenergic receptors. It is developed based on Intravail technology.
ARS Pharmaceuticals Overview
ARS Pharmaceuticals (ARS Pharma) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops the treatments for severe allergic reactions. The company’s main product in development is a needle-free, low-dose intranasal epinephrine nasal spray intended for use as a rescue medication for people with Type 1 severe allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Its products include neffy. ARS Pharma’s products are designed for patients and caregivers that need a safe, effective, and easy-to-administer alternative to injectable devices. It serves customers across the US. ARS Pharma is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$67.5 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$35.5 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$54.4 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$34.7 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Neffy’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
