Naporafenibum is a small molecule commercialized by Erasca, with a leading Phase III program in Metastatic Melanoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 11 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 7 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Naporafenibum’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Naporafenibum is expected to reach an annual total of $90 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Naporafenibum Overview
Naporafenib (LXH-254) is under development for the treatment of advanced unresectable or metastatic solid tumor, metastatic melanoma, metastatic colorectal cancer, colon cancer, non small cell lung cancer. The drug candidate is administered orally. It acts by targeting pan RAF kinase. It is a new molecular entity (NME).
Erasca Overview
Erasca is an oncology drug development company that uses its artificial intelligence drug discovery platform to treat and cure cancer. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$247.5 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$107.4 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$242.8 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$122.8 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Naporafenibum’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
