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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: Viracta Therapeutics Inc's (Nanatinostat + Valganciclovir)

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The revenue for (Nanatinostat + Valganciclovir) is expected to reach an annual total of $248 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

(Nanatinostat + Valganciclovir) Overview

Nana-Val is under development for the treatment for EBV-associated cancers including plasmablastic lymphoma, angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma, lymphoepithelioma, post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder, cutaneous T cell lymphoma, diffuse large B cell lymphoma, systemic lupus erythematosus, and Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple sclerosis. It is a small molecule administered orally. It is a combination of nanatinostat and valganciclovir. The drug is developed based on Esterase Sensitive Motif (ESM) technology. Nanatinostat acts by targeting HDAC and valganciclovir acts by targeting DNA polymerase.

The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of solid tumor, gastric cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, leiomyosarcoma, sarcoma, colon cancer, natural killer cell lymphomas, peripheral T-cell lymphomas (PTCL),  latent viral infections and relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma.

Viracta Therapeutics Overview

Viracta Therapeutics (Viracta) is a biopharmaceutical company. It is primarily engaged in the development of therapeutics for the treatment of virus-associated cancers. The company’s focus is on cancers associated with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV); a group 1 human carcinogen. Viracta’s lead product candidate is an all-oral combination therapy of its proprietary investigational drug, nanatinostat, and the antiviral agent valganciclovir, collectively referred to as Nana-val. Nana-val is currently undergoing evaluation in several ongoing clinical trials for the treatment of various subtypes of relapsed or refractory EBV-positive lymphoma, as well as EBV-positive recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma and other EBV-positive solid tumors. Viracta is headquartered in Cardiff, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$50.7 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$50.6 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$51.1 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$49.2 million in FY2022.

For a complete picture of (Nanatinostat + Valganciclovir)’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.