KarXT is a small molecule commercialized by Karuna Therapeutics, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Schizophrenia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 20 clinical trials, of which 11 were completed, 8 are ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of KarXT’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for KarXT is expected to reach an annual total of $2.81 bn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
KarXT Overview
Xanomeline in combination with trospium chloride is under development for the treatment of psychosis, negative and cognitive symptoms associated with dementia, dementia-related psychosis, schizophrenia as an adjunctive treatment for psychosis associated with Alzheimer’s disease. It is administered orally as a capsule. The drug candidate act by targeting muscarinic acetyl choline receptors. It was also under development for the treatment of bipolar disorder and pain.
Karuna Therapeutics Overview
Karuna Therapeutics, a subsidiary of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co, is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing medicines for neurological and psychiatric conditions. It is investigating its lead product candidate KarXT, an oral modulator of muscarinic receptors for the treatment of schizophrenia, negative and cognitive symptoms of schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease. The company’s other pipeline products include KAR-2618, KAR-401, KAR-501, KAR-201 and KAR-301. Its lead product candidate combines xanomeline, a novel muscarinic agonist that stimulates muscarinic receptors in the central nervous system. Karuna Therapeutics is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, the US.
For a complete picture of KarXT’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
