The revenue for Influenza (quadrivalent) vaccine is expected to reach an annual total of $78 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Influenza (quadrivalent) vaccine Overview

Vaccine is under development for the prevention of Influenza virus A infections, Influenza virus B infections. It is a quadrivalent modified RNA (modRNA) vaccine. It is administered by intramuscular route.

Pfizer Overview

Pfizer discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes biopharmaceuticals. The company offers products to treat various conditions such as cardiovascular, metabolic and pain, women’s health, cancer, inflammation, immune disorders, and rare diseases. It also provides sterile injectable pharmaceuticals, biosimilars, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and contract manufacturing services. Pfizer sells its products through wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, individual provider offices, clinics, government agencies, and pharmacies. It has major manufacturing facilities in India, China, Japan, Ireland, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Singapore, and the US. The company provides its products in North America, South America, Asia-Pacific, Australia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Pfizer is headquartered in New York, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$58,496 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 41.7% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$929 million in FY2023, compared to an operating profit of US$36,237 million in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 3.6%, compared to a net margin of 31.3% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$14,878 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 4.4% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Influenza (quadrivalent) vaccine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.