Frespaciguat is a small molecule commercialized by Merck, with a leading Phase III program in Idiopathic Pulmonary Hypertension. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 6 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Frespaciguat’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Frespaciguat is expected to reach an annual total of $7 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Frespaciguat Overview
frespaciguat (MK-5475) is under development for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension including idiopathic, heritable, drug- or toxin-induced pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary hypertension associated with connective tissue disease or congenital heart disease and pulmonary hypertension associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It is administered through inhalation route. The drug candidate acts by targeting soluble guanylate cyclase (SGC).
The drug candidate was under development for the treatment of pulmonary vascular resistance in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension and hypoxemia due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.
Merck Overview
Merck is a biopharmaceutical company with focus on the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of prescription medicines, biologic therapies, vaccines, and animal health products. It offers prescription products for the treatment of cardiovascular conditions, cancer, immune disorders, infectious and respiratory diseases, and diabetes, among others. The company provides animal health products such as vaccines, poultry products, livestock products and aquaculture products. Merck sells medicines to drug wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers; and animal health products to veterinarians, distributors, and animal producers. The company and its subsidiaries operate in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Merck is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$60,115 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 1.4% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 3%, compared to an operating margin of 30.3% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 0.6%, compared to a net margin of 24.5% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$16,112 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 2.1% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Frespaciguat’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
