Endoxifen is a small molecule commercialized by Atossa Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 11 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, 5 are ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Endoxifen’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Endoxifen is expected to reach an annual total of $305 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Endoxifen Overview
Endoxifen is under development for the treatment of HER2 negative breast cancer, mammographic breast density for women and breast cancer for men, recurrent ovarian cancer, ductal carcinoma in situ. It is administered through oral and topical route. The drug candidate is an active metabolite of tamoxifen. It acts by targeting estrogen receptor and selective PKC (protein kinase C) beta.
It was also under development for gynecomastia.
Atossa Therapeutics Overview
Atossa Therapeutics (Atossa), formerly Atossa Genetics, is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It develops proprietary therapeutics and delivery methods for breast cancer and other breast conditions. The company’s pipeline pharmaceutical programs include endoxifen, an active metabolite of tamoxifen, used for the treatment of breast density and other breast health conditions. Atossa develops patented microcatheter technology to deliver fulvestrant as a potential treatment of ductal carcinoma through the nipple to site of early breast cancer. The company uses its proprietary intraductal microcatheter technology to deliver CAR-T cells into the ducts of the breast for the treatment of breast cancer. The company operates presence in Australia, the US and the UK. Atossa is headquartered in Seattle, Washington, the US.
For a complete picture of Endoxifen’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
