Emraclidine is a small molecule commercialized by Cerevel Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Schizophrenia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 16 clinical trials, of which 8 were completed, 6 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Emraclidines valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Emraclidine is expected to reach an annual total of $192 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalDatas Expiry Model. The drugs revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drugs phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Emraclidine Overview
Emraclidine (CVL-231) is under development for the treatment of schizophrenia experiencing an acute exacerbation of psychosis, dementia associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Alzheimer’s disease psychosis (psychosis). The drug candidate acts by targeting muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M4. The drug candidate is a positive allosteric modulator, or PAM. It is administered through oral route as tablets.
It was also under development for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.
Cerevel Therapeutics Overview
Cerevel Therapeutics (Cerevel) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies to treat neuroscience diseases. The companys product pipeline includes various drug candidates such as Emraclidine for treatment of schizophrenia and Alzheimers disease psychosis; and Darigabat to treat epilepsy and panic disorder. Cerevels pipeline also includes Tavapadon drug candidate for treatment of both early-and late-stage Parkinsons disease; and CVL-871 to treat dementia-related apathy. The company is also developing other programs such as CVL-354, PDE4 inhibitor, and M4 Agonist for therapeutic areas of major depressive disorder (MDD), psychiatric, neuroinflammatory disorder, and neurological indications. Cerevel is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$447.3 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$367.9 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$432.8 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$351.5 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Emraclidines valuation, buy the drugs risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
