Emraclidine is a small molecule commercialized by AbbVie, with a leading Phase II program in Schizophrenia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 16 clinical trials, of which 8 were completed, 6 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Emraclidine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Emraclidine is expected to reach an annual total of $155 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Emraclidine Overview
Emraclidine (CVL-231) is under development for the treatment of schizophrenia experiencing an acute exacerbation of psychosis, dementia associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Alzheimer’s disease psychosis (psychosis). The drug candidate acts by targeting muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M4. The drug candidate is a positive allosteric modulator, or PAM. It is administered through oral route as tablets.
It was also under development for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.
AbbVie Overview
AbbVie is a specialty biopharmaceutical company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes drugs for the treatment of chronic and complex diseases. Its drugs are indicated for the treatment of metabolic and rheumatological diseases, neurological disorders, skin diseases, rheumatoid arthritis, pain related to endometriosis, pediatric Crohn’s disease, cancer, and other serious health conditions. AbbVie is also advancing its pipeline programs for the treatment of Crohn’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, neurological disorders, aesthetics, and other autoimmune diseases. The company markets its products directly to wholesalers, distributors, healthcare facilities, government agencies, specialty pharmacies, and independent retailers. The company has operations in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. AbbVie is headquartered in North Chicago, Illinois, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$54,318 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 6.4% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 23.5%, compared to an operating margin of 31.2% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 9%, compared to a net margin of 20.4% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$12,310 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 13.9% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Emraclidine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
