Elritercept is a fusion protein commercialized by Keros Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Myelodysplastic Syndrome. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 2 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Elritercept’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Elritercept is expected to reach an annual total of $325 mn by 2040 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Elritercept Overview
Elritercept (KER-050) is under development for the treatment of cytopenias including anemia and thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) and myelofibrosis (MF). It is administered through subcutaneous route. The drug candidate is a protein which is an engineered ligand trap comprised of a modified ligand-binding domain of the TGF-beta receptor, activin receptor type IIA that is fused to the portion of the human antibody known as the Fc domain.
It was also under development for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD)
Keros Therapeutics Overview
Keros Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes novel treatments for hematological and musculoskeletal disorders. The company’s product pipeline includes KER-050 for the treatment of low blood cell counts and cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and myelofibrosis (MF); KER-047 for treating functional iron deficiency (FID) anemia in MDS and myelofibrosis (MF). Its pipeline also includes KER-012 to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; and KER-065 to treat Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company is developing other drug programs that are at a pre-clinical stage in areas of musculoskeletal disorders. Keros Therapeutics is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023). The operating loss of the company was US$169.9 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$114.8 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$153 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$104.7 million in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$0.1 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 42% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Elritercept’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
