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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: GSK plc's Cobolimab

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The revenue for Cobolimab is expected to reach an annual total of $75 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Cobolimab Overview

Cobolimab is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including melanoma, squamous and non-squamous non-small cell lung carcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma and colorectal cancer. It inhibits T cell immunoglobulin mucin-3 (TIM-3). The drug candidate is a humanized monoclonal IgG4 antibody and is administered through intravenous route. It is based on the (somatic hypermutation) SHM-XEL technology.

GSK Overview

GSK is a healthcare company that focuses on developing, manufacturing and commercializing general medicines, specialty medicines and vaccines. It offers drugs for the treatment of diseases such as HIV, respiratory, cancer, immuno-inflammation, anti-viral, central nervous system (CNS), metabolic, cardiovascular, and urogenital, anti-bacterial, dermatology and rare diseases. The company also offers over-the-counter (OTC) products for pain relief, oral health, nutrition, skin health and gastrointestinal diseases. GSK’s vaccine portfolio covers various diseases including hepatitis, diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, rotavirus and HPV infections, measles and bacterial meningitis, among others. The company sells its products through wholesalers, pharmacies, hospitals, physicians and other groups worldwide. GSK is headquartered in Brentford, Middlesex, the UK.
The company reported revenues of (British Pounds) GBP30,328 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.4% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 22.2%, compared to an operating margin of 21.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 16.2%, compared to a net margin of 51% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of GBP7,363 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 8.6% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Cobolimab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.