Ceralasertib is a small molecule commercialized by AstraZeneca, with a leading Phase III program in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 41 clinical trials, of which 11 were completed, 25 are ongoing, and 5 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Ceralasertib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Ceralasertib is expected to reach an annual total of $13 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Ceralasertib Overview
Ceralasertib is under development for the treatment of head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, HER-2 negative breast cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, advanced biliary tract cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, uterine cancer, small cell lung cancer, chronic myelomonocytic leukemia, metastatic hormone refractory (castration resistant, androgen-independent) prostate cancer, metastatic colorectal cancer, salivary gland cancer, myelodysplastic syndrome, homologous-recombination deficient (HRD) of adenocarcinoma of the gastroesophageal junction, ovarian cancer, peritoneal cancer, fallopian tube cancer, refractory solid tumors including lung adenocarcinoma, metastatic renal cell carcinoma, urothelial cell carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, other solid tumors. The drug candidate is administered through oral route in the form of film coated tablet and gelatin coated capsule. It targets ataxia telangiectasia and rad3 related (ATR) kinase.
It was also under development for the treatment of metastatic triple negative breast cancer, prolymphocytic leukemia (PLL), Burkitt lymphoma, acute lymphocytic leukemia, hairy cell leukemia (HCL), relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), non-hodgkin's lymphoma, indolent b-cell lymphoma and B cell lymphomas, metastatic melanoma.
AstraZeneca Overview
AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,811 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 17.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13%, compared to a net margin of 7.4% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$12,938 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 2% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Ceralasertib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
