AV-101 is a small molecule commercialized by VistaGen Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Major Depressive Disorder. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 8 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, 1 is ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AV-101’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for AV-101 is expected to reach an annual total of $39 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
AV-101 Overview
AV-101 is under development for the treatment of dyskinesia associated with levodopa therapy for Parkinson’s disease, major depressive disorder and suicidal ideation, epilepsy. The drug candidate is administered orally as a capsule. AV-101 is a pro-drug that is converted in the brain into an active metabolite, 7-chlorokynurenic acid (7-Cl-KYNA). It acts by targeting NMDA receptors and AMPA receptors. It was under development for treatment resistant depression, neuropathic pain and Huntington's disease.
VistaGen Therapeutics Overview
VistaGen Therapeutics (VistaGen) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops new-generation medicines for depression and neuropsychiatric disorders. The company’s pipeline product, AV-101, currently under Phase 2 clinical development, is an oral N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor glycine B intended to treat major depressive disorder. Its other pipeline products comprise PH94B treats social anxiety disorder and PH10 nasal spray treats major depressive disorder. The company offers its products in the form of sprays and oral administration. It partners with other healthcare industries for research and assessment of drug effects on cardiac risk. VistaGen is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the US.
For a complete picture of AV-101’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
