ATRN-119 is a small molecule commercialized by Aprea Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Endometrial Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 is ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ATRN-119’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for ATRN-119 is expected to reach an annual total of $65 mn by 2036 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
ATRN-119 Overview
ATRN-119 is under development for the treatment of advanced solid tumors including ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, colon cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, adrenocortical carcinoma (adrenal cortex cancer), adenocarcinoma, duodenal cancer, fallopian tube cancer, pancreatic cancer, non-small cell lung cancer and prostate cancer. The drug candidate is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting ataxia telangiectasia and rad3-related (ATR). These are developed based on Atrize platform technology.
Aprea Therapeutics Overview
Aprea Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that develops cancer therapeutics that reactivate mutant tumor suppressor protein, p53. Its DDR products pipeline includes ATRN-119 and ATRN-W1051. The company also offers products such as APR-246 drugs and therapeutics for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and additional hematologic and solid tumor malignancies. It also has pre-clinical research and development to extend its product development. The company operates offices in Sweden and the US. Aprea Therapeutics is headquartered in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.6 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023). The operating loss of the company was US$15.5 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$113.4 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$14.3 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$112.7 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of ATRN-119’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
