Atrasentan hydrochloride is a small molecule commercialized by Novartis, with a leading Phase III program in IgA Nephropathy (Berger’s Disease). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 24 clinical trials, of which 19 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Atrasentan hydrochloride’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Atrasentan hydrochloride is expected to reach an annual total of $162 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Atrasentan hydrochloride Overview
Atrasentan hydrochloride (ABT-627) is under development for the treatment of immunoglobulin A nephropathy and proteinuric glomerular diseases including focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), alport syndrome and diabetic kidney disease (DKD). The drug candidate is administered orally. The drug candidate selectively targets endothelin-A receptor. It was also under development for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy associated with chronic kidney disease, pediatric nephrotic syndrome, metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer, hypertension, diabetic neuropathic pain and ovarian cancer
Novartis Overview
Novartis is a healthcare company that focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of prescription and generic pharmaceutical products and eye care products. It provides drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dermatological conditions, neurological disorders, ophthalmic and respiratory diseases, hematologic diseases, solid tumors, immune disorders, and infections, among others. The company offers generic medicines and biosimilars through Sandoz. Novartis conducts research in various disease areas through The Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research (NIBR). The company operates through a network of subsidiaries and offices across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Novartis is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
For a complete picture of Atrasentan hydrochloride’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
