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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: Arvinas Inc's ARV-766

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The revenue for ARV-766 is expected to reach an annual total of $48 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ARV-766 Overview

ARV-766 is under development for the treatment of metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate is a heterobifunctional PROTAC (proteolysis-targeting chimera) and acts by targeting androgen receptor and an E3 ubiquitin ligase.

Arvinas Overview

Arvinas is a biopharmaceutical company that develops protein degradation therapeutics. The company develops novel therapeutics for the treatment of neuroscience, oncology, and other therapeutic areas. Its pipeline product includes oncology and immuno-oncology pipeline and Neuroscience pipeline. Oncology and immuno-oncology pipeline products include Vepdegestrant (ARV-471), Bavdegalutamide (ARV-110), ARV-766, ARV-393, AR-V7, HPK1 (I-O Program), KRAS-G12D/V, Myelocytomatosis (Myc) proteins. Neuroscience pipeline products include ARV-102, Alpha, Synuclein, mHTT, Tau. The company intends to expand its transformative protein degradation technology and its product candidates into clinical development through collaborations with pharmaceutical companies. Arnivas is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$78.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 40.3% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$401.5 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$263.2 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$367.3 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$282.5 million in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$25.3 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 67.8% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ARV-766’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.