ARCT-810 is a gene therapy commercialized by Arcturus Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Ornithine-Transcarbamylase Deficiency. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 4 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ARCT-810’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for ARCT-810 is expected to reach an annual total of $126 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
ARCT-810 Overview
ARCT-810 is under development for the treatment of ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency. It is administered through the intravenous route. The drug candidate is an ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) mRNA. It is developed based on lipid-enabled and unlocked nucleic acid modified RNA delivery technology (LUNAR) a LNP based platform and manufactured by NanoAssemblr technology. It acts by targeting periportal hepatocytes.
Arcturus Therapeutics Overview
Arcturus Therapeutics is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. It focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of medicines for the treatment of infectious diseases and rare diseases. The company’s major products include a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery system, LUNAR, and mRNA technology. Its pipeline product portfolio includes ARCT-810 (LUNAR-OTC) and ARCT-032 (LUNAR-CF). LUNAR-CF is a grant program with the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation to treat cystic fibrosis using mRNA therapies. The company provides mRNA that is used as protein replacement therapy to treat diseases caused by a lack of protein or defective proteins, such as cystic fibrosis. Arcturus Therapeutics Inc is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$166.8 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 19% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$44.3 million in FY2023, compared to an operating profit of US$12.2 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$29.7 million in FY2023, compared to a net profit of US$9.4 million in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$49.9 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 31.2% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of ARCT-810’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
