Apinocaltamide is a small molecule commercialized by Neurocrine Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Epileptic Encephalopathy. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 6 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Apinocaltamide’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Apinocaltamide is expected to reach an annual total of $430 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Apinocaltamide Overview
Apinocaltamide (NBI-827104) is under development for the treatment of rare pediatric epileptic encephalopathy with continuous spike-and-wave during sleep (CSCW). The drug candidate is administered through oral route and formulated as film coated tablet and capsule. It is a small molecule which acts by targeting T-type calcium channel Cav3.1, Cav3.2, Cav3.3.
The drug candidate was under development for the treatment of essential tremor and epilepsy.
Neurocrine Biosciences Overview
Neurocrine Biosciences (Neurocrine) is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets neurological drugs. The company’s lead product Ingrezza, is a vesicular monoamine transporter 2 (VMAT2) inhibitor to treat adults with tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington’s disease. It is developing a pipeline of drug candidates for various indications in neurology, neuroendocrinology, and neuropsychiatry. Neurocrine also conducts clinical trials and studies for diseases such as movement disorders, epilepsy, and congenital adrenal hyperplasia, among others. The company works in collaboration with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma and AbbVie for products distribution. Neurocrine is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1,887.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 26.8% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 13.3%, compared to an operating margin of 12% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13.2%, compared to a net margin of 10.4% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$590.2 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 14.5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Apinocaltamide’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
