AOC-1020 is an antisense rnai oligonucleotide commercialized by Avidity Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AOC-1020’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for AOC-1020 is expected to reach an annual total of $117 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
AOC-1020 Overview
AOC-1020 is under development for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). It is administered through intravenous route. The drug candidate is an antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) comprising monoclonal antibody that binds to cells expressing transferrin receptor 1 (TfR1) conjugated with a siRNA targeting DUX4 mRNA. It is being developed based on antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) platform.
Avidity Biosciences Overview
Avidity Biosciences is a biotechnology company that focuses on the development of RNA therapeutics. The company’s primary activities focuses on the creation and advancement of its proprietary antibody oligonucleotide conjugates (AOC) platform, that combines the specificity of monoclonal antibodies with the precision of oligonucleotides. Avidity Biosciences‘ major products include AOC programs for rare diseases such as myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD), and duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Its products are primarily used in the healthcare industry, specifically in the treatment of muscle diseases. The company operates in the US. Avidity Biosciences is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$9.6 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.6% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$235.6 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$178.9 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$212.2 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$174 million in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$3.5 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 61.6% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of AOC-1020’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
