The obesity market is growing at an unprecedented rate following the entrance of GLP-1 receptor agonists. In a recently published report, GlobalData estimates that it will exceed $173.5 billion by 2031.

According to GlobalData’s Obesity: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis – Update, the obesity market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 32.3% until 2031 in the seven major markets (7MM: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and the US).

Few medications are currently approved for obesity. These include combination therapies such as bupropion-naltrexone and phentermine-topiramate, lipase inhibitor orlistat, anorectics and GLP-1R agonist therapies. The latter drug class is driving the revolution in this therapeutic area, with Saxenda (liraglutide), Wegovy (semaglutide) and the dual GLP-1R/GIPR agonist Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide), capable of promoting body weight loss of up to 25%.

The obesity drug development pipeline is vast and includes both incretin analogues and drugs with new mechanisms of action. There are 141 products in clinical development for obesity, demonstrating the promising future of this market.

More than 200 million people currently live with obesity in the 7MM, a population that is forecast to grow at an annual growth rate of 0.7% by 2031. Due to the recent recognition of obesity as a disease, physician and patient awareness is expected to improve, increasing diagnosis numbers and the number of patients treated with pharmacotherapy.

Opportunities exist for new players to enter the space

With the increase in the number of therapies with longer duration of action such as Eli Lilly’s bimagrumab (BYM338) and Amgen’s MariTide, improved patient compliance and therapies offering new routes of administration such as Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide (NN-9932), Eli Lilly’s orforglipron and Structure Therapeutics’ GSBR-1290, the obesity market is expected to grow and eventually offer a wide range of therapeutic options to the patient population.

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As one of the most active pharmaceutical markets, it is receiving high levels of investment. At present, the market is dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which have developed the famous Ozempic/Wegovy and Mounjaro/Zepbound, respectively. However, the market offers opportunities for other players to enter the space, as the population living with obesity, already considerable, continues to increase.

For these reasons, sales from obesity medications are expected to hit $173.5 billion at the end of the forecast period in 2031. Given the number of comorbidities associated with obesity, the growth in this market is expected to impact the entire cardiometabolic disease space, especially as obesity medications are developed that treat more than simply obesity.