Eli Lilly has announced a $400m reduction in its 2024 revenue forecast, marking a 3% shortfall from its October 2024 guidance.
The revised outlook, discussed at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference 2025 on 14 January, has been attributed to stocking levels and unexpected market dynamics in Q4 2024 in the diabetes glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) market.
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By GlobalDataFor Q4 2024, Lilly now expects global revenue of approximately $13.5bn, a 45% increase from Q4 2023. This growth is driven by the strong performance of its incretin-based drugs, including diabetes treatment Mounjaro (tirzepatide), which made $3.5bn in sales, and obesity drug Zepbound (tirzepatide), which made $1.9bn. Additionally, the company reported a 20% increase in revenue from non-incretin products across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. Despite these gains, the overall revenue forecast fell short of initial projections.
Shares in the company dipped by 7% following the 14 January announcement before recovering slightly to close 5% lower than the market open.
Eli Lilly’s CEO Dave Ricks acknowledged the challenges in predicting growth in the rapidly expanding GLP-1RA market.
During the conference presentation, he said: “It’s always disappointing to miss your own expectations. We’re dealing with a business that is unprecedented in our sector in terms of size, scale, and growth rate.”
The company faced significant disruptions last year due to shortages of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Mounjaro and Zepbound, as demand outpaced supply. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared the shortages over in December 2024, following substantial manufacturing investments by Lilly. These shortages drove some patients to seek alternatives from compounding pharmacies, impacting sales momentum.
Lilly has asked to join an opposing lawsuit brought by compounding pharmacies against the FDA over the agency’s decision that the company’s blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer in short supply. Lilly stated that it could not rely on the FDA to fully defend its interests.
The court case will determine whether compounding pharmacies and facilities can keep selling cheaper versions of the company’s tirzepatide-based drugs, as they have been allowed to do during the shortages.
To meet the surging demand, Lilly plans to “produce at least 60% more saleable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024″, said Ricks. The company’s investments in manufacturing infrastructure underscore the growing significance of GLP-1RAs in treating diabetes, obesity, and associated conditions such as sleep apnoea and heart failure.
Lilly’s revised 2024 guidance highlights the intense competition in the GLP-1RA market, dominated by Novo Nordisk and other emerging players. Both companies are vying for a share of the booming diabetes and weight-loss drug sector, projected to generate billions in revenue over the next decade.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Eli Lilly is advancing its portfolio with an oral obesity drug. The convenience and scalability of a pill could further strengthen Lilly’s position in the market, as “there is a meaningful segment of people who prefer oral medications,” according to Ricks.
Despite the recent revision, Lilly remains optimistic about its long-term growth. The company has forecast 2025 sales between $58bn and $61bn, with GlobalData projecting Zepbound and Mounjaro to generate $27.6bn and $35bn in annual sales, respectively, by 2030.
GlobalData is the parent company of Pharmaceutical Technology.
Eli Lilly is focusing on expanding access to obesity treatments while leveraging new therapeutic indications and ensuring pricing stability across its portfolio. Beyond incretin-based drugs, the company is driving growth in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, demonstrating diversification in its revenue streams. The company plans to release its full Q4 2024 results on 6 February 2025.
Elsewhere at the conference, Amgen announced how it hopes to become a major market player in the obesity space with its therapy MariTide. The company hopes the drug’s once-monthly dosing regimen and the company’s manufacturing capabilities will make it a major player in the sector.
