ESK-001 is a small molecule commercialized by Alumis, with a leading Phase III program in Plaque Psoriasis (Psoriasis Vulgaris). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 9 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, 4 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of ESK-001’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for ESK-001 is expected to reach an annual total of $173 mn by 2036 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
ESK-001 Overview
ESK-001 is under development for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), autoimmune disorders, and plaque psoriasis. It acts by targeting non receptor tyrosine protein kinase TYK2. It is administered through oral route.
It was also under development for noninfectious uveitis, posterior uveitis and panuveitis.
Alumis Overview
Alumis, formerly Esker Therapeutics, is a precision medicines company that focuses on discovery, development and treatment of autoimmune diseases. The company’s product pipeline includes ESK-001 which targets psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus; A-005 treats neuroinflammation. It develops pipeline of molecules to address immune-mediated diseases as monotherapy or combination therapies. The company utilizes its proprietary analytics platform with curated genetic, clinical and health records data to develop its products. Alumis is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$158.2 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$113.9 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$155 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$111.9 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of ESK-001’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
