Atumelnant is a small molecule commercialized by Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase II program in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (Adrenogenital Syndrome). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 4 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 2 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Atumelnant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Atumelnant is expected to reach an annual total of $81 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Atumelnant Overview
CRN-04894 is under development for the treatment of Cushing disease, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) and ectopic ACTH syndrome. The drug candidate is administered through oral route and acts by targeting adrenal corticotropic hormone (ACTH) receptor.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Overview
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes novel therapeutics for endocrine diseases and endocrine-related tumors. The company’s pipeline products include paltusotine an oral somatostatin receptor type 2 (SST2) agonist that treats acromegaly and carcinoid syndrome; and CRN04894 an ACTH agonist that targets Cushing’s disease and congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH); PTH antagonist, SST3 agonist, SST5 agonist and TSH antagonist for hyperparathyroidism, polycystic kidney disease hyperinsulinism and graves’ disease; oral GLP-1 nonpeptide and oral GIP nonpeptide target diabetes and obesity. The company operates through its subsidiary in Australia. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 15.3% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$222.6 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$167.9 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$214.5 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$163.9 million in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$0.4 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, a decrease of 37.7% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Atumelnant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
