Nipocalimab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Johnson & Johnson, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Myasthenia Gravis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 25 clinical trials, of which 13 were completed, 8 are ongoing, 3 are planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Nipocalimab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Nipocalimab is expected to reach an annual total of $1.36 bn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Nipocalimab Overview
Nipocalimab (M-281) is under development for the treatment of moderate to severe bullous pemphigoid (BP), moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA), chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP), fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT), systemic lupus erythematosus, immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy, erythroblastosis fetalis (hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN)), generalized myasthenia gravis, idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, lupus nephritis, primary Sjogren’s syndrome (pSS) and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia. It is administered through intravenous and subcutaneous routes which is formulated as a concentrate solution. The drug candidate acts by targeting neonatal Fc receptor ((FcRn). It is a new molecular entity (NME).
It was also under development for the treatment of idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura and rheumatoid arthritis.
Johnson & Johnson Overview
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) researches, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products and medical devices. The company conducts business through its operating companies. It provides pharmaceuticals for immune disorders, cancer, neurological disorders, infectious, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases; and medical devices for use in cardiovascular, orthopaedic, neurovascular care, general surgery and vision care fields. J&J distributes pharmaceutical and medical products to retailers, wholesalers, healthcare professionals and hospitals. The company offers its products in the US; Europe; Asia-Pacific and Africa; and Western Hemisphere (excluding the US) and Latin America. J&J is headquartered in New Brunswick, New Jersey, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$85,159 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 6.5% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 17.7%, compared to an operating margin of 24.2% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 41.3%, compared to a net margin of 22.4% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$22,471 million for the third quarter ended September 2024, an increase of 0.1% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Nipocalimab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
