Milvexian is a small molecule commercialized by Bristol-Myers Squibb, with a leading Phase III program in Atrial Flutter. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 26 clinical trials, of which 23 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Milvexian’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Milvexian is expected to reach an annual total of $297 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Milvexian Overview
Milvexian (BMS-986177) is under development for the prevention and treatment of thrombosis, acute ischemic stroke (SSP), venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter and acute coronary syndrome. It is administered through oral route as a suspension, tablets and capsules. It acts by targeting factor XIa.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Overview
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is a specialty biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing and manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of medicines and related medical products to patients with serious diseases. Its primary focus is on cancer, immunology, cardiovascular, and fibrotic diseases. The company offers its products across the world to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, medical professionals, hospitals and government entities. The company has an operational presence in the US, Switzerland, Puerto Rico, Ireland, and the Netherlands. The company conducts research to focus on the discovery and development of novel medicines that address diseases in areas of unmet medical need. BMS is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,006 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 2.5% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 20.9%, compared to an operating margin of 20.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 17.8%, compared to a net margin of 13.7% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$12,201 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 2.8% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Milvexian’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
