Dordaviprone is a small molecule commercialized by Chimerix, with a leading Phase III program in Pediatric Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 33 clinical trials, of which 12 were completed, 13 are ongoing, 3 are planned, and 5 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Dordaviprone’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Dordaviprone is expected to reach an annual total of $176 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Dordaviprone Overview
Dordaviprone hydrochloride is under development for the treatment of high-grade glioma including thalamus, meningioma, hypothalamus, brainstem, cerebellum, midbrain, or spinal cord, diffuse midline glioma, neuroendocrine tumors, diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma, pheochromocytoma-paraganglioma (PC-PG) and endometrial, prostate cancers, , relapsed or refractory acute myelocytic leukemia, acute lymphocytic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, multiple myeloma, and unspecified indication. The drug candidate is administered orally in the form of capsules. The drug candidate is developed based on cell-based molecular imaging platform. It acts by targeting JAK/STAT pathway, Akt and ERK and ClpP.
It was also under development for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer. It was also under development for the treatment of relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin's lymphoma includes diffuse large b-cell lymphoma, mantle cell lymphoma, gliosarcoma, cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, ovarian, colorectal cancer and transformed large cell lymphoma.
Chimerix Overview
Chimerix is a biopharmaceutical company that develops, discovers, and commercializes novel and oral antiviral therapeutics. The company’s pipeline product includes ONC201, ONC206, ONC212 and CMX521 drug candidates. Its products are used to treat various diseases like malignant glioma, neuroendocrine tumors, solid tumors, COVID-19 and IND-enabling studies. Its ONC201 is a clinical-stage development for H3 K27M-mutant diffuse glioma as its lead indication ONC206 for adult and pediatric patients with primary central nervous system tumors. The organization works in partnership with Oncoceutics, Inc., Cantex Pharmaceuticals, BARDA, and SymBio Pharmaceuticals. Chimerix is headquartered in Durham, North Carolina, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 99% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$93.1 million in FY2023, compared to an operating profit of US$169.3 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$82.1 million in FY2023, compared to a net profit of US$172.2 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Dordaviprone’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
