The revenue for Ipatasertib is expected to reach an annual total of $84 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Ipatasertib Overview

Ipatasertib (RG-7440/GDC-0068) is under development for the treatment of metastatic solid tumors including advanced or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), oropharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, hypopharyngeal cancer, oral cavity (mouth) cancer, paranasal sinus and nasal cavity cancer peritoneal cancer, castration-resistant prostate cancer in previously untreated patients and also patients treated with docetaxel chemotherapy, metastatic and hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, glioblastoma mulitforme, melanoma, locally advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. The drug candidate is administered orally in the form of tablets and capsules. It is a small molecule with antineoplastic activity. Ipatasertib targets the serine/threonine protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B). It was also under development for neoadjuvant triple negative breast cancer, endometrial cancer and prostate cancer.

Roche Overview

Roche is a holding company that is involved in the business of offering oncology, immunology, infectious diseases, ophthalmology and neuroscience research services. The company is headquartered in Basel, Basel-Stadt, Switzerland.
The company reported revenues of (Swiss Francs) CHF58,716 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 7.2% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 25.8%, compared to an operating margin of 27.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 19.6%, compared to a net margin of 19.6% in FY2022.

For a complete picture of Ipatasertib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.