Navacaprant is a small molecule commercialized by Neumora Therapeutics, with a leading Phase III program in Major Depressive Disorder. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 5 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Navacaprant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Navacaprant is expected to reach an annual total of $334 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Navacaprant Overview
Navacaprant hydrochloride is under development for the treatment of bipolar II depression and major depressive disorder (MDD) with anhedonia. The drug candidate is administered through oral route in the form of tablet. It is a small molecule targeting kappa-type opioid receptor (KOR). It is being developed based on AI/ML technology.
Neumora Therapeutics Overview
Neumora Therapeutics (Neumora) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies to treat neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases. The company’s lead product candidate, Navacaprant (NMRA-140), is a novel once-daily oral kappa opioid receptor for treatment of major depressive disorder and bipolar depression. Its pipeline includes various other drug candidates such as NMRA-511, a V1aR antagonist to treat agitation in Alzheimer’s disease; NMRA-266, NMRA-M4R, and NMRA-NMDA for the treatment of schizophrenia. The company is also investigating and developing drugs for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease treatments. Neumora is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$252.1 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$135.9 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$235.9 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$130.9 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Navacaprant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
