Durcabtagene autoleucel is a gene-modified cell therapy commercialized by Novartis, with a leading Phase II program in Refractory Multiple Myeloma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Durcabtagene autoleucel’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Durcabtagene autoleucel is expected to reach an annual total of $34 mn by 2040 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Durcabtagene autoleucel Overview
Durcabtagene autoleucel (PHE-885) is under development for the treatment of relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma. It is administered through intravenous route. The therapeutic candidate comprises of autologous T cells genetically modified to express chimeric antigen receptor that targets BCMA (B-cell maturation antigen).
Novartis Overview
Novartis is a healthcare company that focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of prescription and generic pharmaceutical products and eye care products. It provides drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dermatological conditions, neurological disorders, ophthalmic and respiratory diseases, hematologic diseases, solid tumors, immune disorders, and infections, among others. Novartis conducts research in various disease areas through the BioMedical Research division. The company operates through a network of subsidiaries and offices across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. Novartis is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$46,660 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 7.6% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 20.5%, compared to an operating margin of 18% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 31.8%, compared to a net margin of 16% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$12,120 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 2.9% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Durcabtagene autoleucel’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
