Navacaprant is a small molecule commercialized by Neumora Therapeutics, with a leading Phase III program in Major Depressive Disorder. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, 4 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Navacaprant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Navacaprant is expected to reach an annual total of $620 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Navacaprant Overview
Navacaprant hydrochloride is under development for the treatment of bipolar depression and major depressive disorder (MDD) with anhedonia. The drug candidate is a small molecule that acts by targeting kappa-type opioid receptor (KOR). It is administered through oral route in the form of tablet.
Neumora Therapeutics Overview
Neumora Therapeutics formerly RBNC Therapeutics, is a biotechnology company that uses data science and neuroscience to develop precision medications to treat brain diseases. Neumora Therapeutics is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$135.9 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$237.3 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$130.9 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$237.3 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Navacaprant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
