TransCon CNP is a synthetic peptide commercialized by Ascendis Pharma, with a leading Phase III program in Achondroplasia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of TransCon CNP’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for TransCon CNP is expected to reach an annual total of $170 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
TransCon CNP Overview
Navepegritide (TransCon CNP) is under development for the treatment of achondroplasia. It is administered through subcutaneous route. The drug candidate is a long-acting prodrug of the C-type natriuretic peptide conjugated to a multi-arm polyethene glycol carrier molecule through a cleavable linker. The drug candidate acts by targeting fibroblast-growth-factor-receptor 3 (FGFR3). It is developed based on the transcon technology.
Ascendis Pharma Overview
Ascendis Pharma is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing drugs for endocrinology and oncology indications. It is investigating TransCon hGH, a long-acting human growth hormone prodrug targeting GHD (growth hormone deficiency); TransCon PTH drug to treat hypoparathyroidism by restoring physiologic levels of PTH (parathyroid hormone); and TransCon CNP, a CNP (C-type natriuretic peptide) drug against achondroplasia (ACH). It is also evaluating TransCon TLR (toll-like receptor) 7/8 agonist and TransCon IL-2 ß/?, an interleukin-2 variant that activates the IL-2 receptor beta/gamma (IL-2Rß/?) for the treatment of cancer. Ascendis Pharma utilizes its proprietary TransCon technology platform to develop its drugs. The company operates in the US, Germany and Denmark. Ascendis Pharma is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR266.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), compared to a revenue of EUR51.2 million in FY2022. The operating loss of the company was EUR455.5 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of EUR561.8 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was EUR481.5 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of EUR583.2 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of TransCon CNP’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
