Molgradex is a recombinant protein commercialized by Savara, with a leading Phase III program in Lung Disease. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 4 were completed, 1 is ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Molgradex’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Molgradex is expected to reach an annual total of $98 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Molgradex Overview
Molgramostim (Molgradex) is under development for the treatment of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP), acute respiratory distress syndrome, coronavirus disease 2019 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and non-tuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) lung infections. It is administered via inhalational route as a solution. Molgramostim is a recombinant human granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF). The drug candidate acts by targeting granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) receptor. The drug development is developed based on veltis technology. It was also under development for the treatment of cystic fibrosis-related lung infection (CF), bronchiectasis (BE) and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP).
Savara Overview
Savara, formerly Mast Therapeutics Inc, is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which develops therapies for the treatment of rare respiratory diseases, including cystic fibrosis (CF), and pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP). The company’s lead product candidates include Molgradex, an inhaled formulation of recombinant human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) for the treatment of PAP. The company has subsidiaries in the US, and Denmark. Savara is headquartered in Austin, Texas, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$38.8 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$41.5 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$38.2 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$43 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Molgradex’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
